IMF raises Republic of Moldova’s economic growth forecast to 1.7% for 2026

The economy of the Republic of Moldova is expected to grow by 1.7% in 2026, up from the previous estimate of 1.5%, according to forecasts by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) presented by the Government on October 28, 2026. The revision is attributed mainly to better-than-expected results in agriculture.

In brief

• According to the Government, results in agriculture were the main factor behind the IMF’s revised forecast for the economy of the Republic of Moldova in 2026.

• The International Monetary Fund forecasts economic growth of 2% in the Republic of Moldova for 2027, according to the Government.

• The Government and the International Monetary Fund team agreed to organize a new mission to the Republic of Moldova in early 2027.

What do the economic forecasts show?

The International Monetary Fund has raised its estimate for the growth of the Republic of Moldova’s Gross Domestic Product in 2026 from 1.5% to 1.7%, according to information published by the Government. The difference between the previous and updated estimates is 0.2 percentage points. The Government identifies agriculture as the main factor behind the adjustment.

For 2027, the IMF forecast presented by the Government points to economic growth of 2%. The figures are estimates of economic performance, not results already recorded for those two years.

What issues were discussed with the IMF?

Inflation, fiscal and budgetary policy, and public-sector pay reform were on the agenda of the discussion between Prime Minister Vasile Tofan and the IMF team. Regarding inflation, participants reviewed forecasts and factors that could affect price trends, amid pressures stemming from the energy crisis and high energy costs.

Vasile Tofan reaffirmed the Government’s commitment to maintaining macroeconomic stability and continuing reforms to support economic growth. These objectives were presented during discussions on economic policies for the period ahead.

When is the next mission scheduled?

A new mission of the International Monetary Fund to the Republic of Moldova is scheduled for early 2027, according to the understanding announced by the Government. The meeting at which the updated forecasts were presented concluded the assessment mission held from October 21 to 28, 2026. The Government and the IMF team also agreed to continue their dialogue and cooperation.